主題：Dividend Dynamics, Learning, and Expected Stock Index Returns（股息動态、學習與期望股票指數收益）

主講人：Ravi Jagannathan, 西北大學凱洛格商學院John F. Sandner金融學講席教授

日期：2018年10月17日（周三）

時間：上午10:00 - 11:30

地點：清華Betvictor中文版4号樓101教室

語言：英文

摘要：

We present a latent variable model of dividends that predicts, out-of-sample, 39.5% to 41.3% of the variation in annual dividend growth rates between 1975 and 2016. Further, when learning about dividend dynamics is incorporated into a long-run risks model, the model predicts, out-of-sample, 25.3% to 27.1% of the variation in annual stock index returns over the same time horizon, with learning contributing approximately half of the predictability in returns. These findings support the view that investors' aversion to long-run risks and their learning about these risks are important in determining stock index prices and expected returns.

主講人簡介:

Dr. Ravi Jagannathan is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange/John F. Sandner Professor of Finance at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management and Co-Director of the Financial Institutions and Markets Research Center at the Kellogg School (1997 - present). He has previously held positions as Piper Jaffray Professor of Finance (1993 - 1997) and Associate Professor of Finance (1989 - 1993) at the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management, Assistant Professor of finance at Northwestern University's Kellogg School (1983 - 1989), and as a Distinguished Visiting Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (1994 - 1995), and has appointments as Special Terms professor at Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University (2012+) and the Indian School of Business (2012-2014) and the Area Leader for Finance, Economics, and Public Policy at the Indian School of Business (2014 - 2018).

Ravi received a Ph.D. in Financial Economics (1983) and an M.S. in Financial Economics (1981) from Carnegie Mellon University, an M.B.A. from the Indian Institute of Management at Ahmedabad (1972), and a B.E. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Madras (1970). His Ph.D dissertation received the Alexander Henderson award for excellence in economics.