Abstract:

China is facing a slowdown in economic growth potential due to at least three unavoidable structural issues: demographics, environmental costs, and changing consumer preferences. Ongoing technological innovations and reforms can partially cushion the deceleration, but a further slowdown in growth is inevitable in the coming decade. This trend, together with the financial risks caused by a high macroeconomic leverage ratio, calls for a new macroeconomic policy framework. Key to sustainable, high-quality, and environment-friendly growth in China is adoption of a macroeconomic policy framework that is less growth-centric and focuses more on macroeconomic and financial stability.

摘要：

       中國的經濟增長潛力至少将受到三個結構性因素的制約：勞動年齡人口下降、環境成本以及消費者偏好的改變。盡管技術進步和體制改革可以減緩增長潛力下降的速度，但未來十年經濟增速的放緩是難以避免的。鑒于經濟增長潛力的下降和宏觀杠杆率高企造成的金融風險累積，中國需要一個新的宏觀政策框架來實現可持續、高質量和環境友好的經濟增長。這個新框架應當摒棄GDP為核心的政策目标而更關注宏觀金融穩定。

全文下載：A New Macroeconomic Policy Framework for Prudence and Higher-Quality Growth in China